By Stan Caldwell
stanmansportsfan.com
Today is March 19, the last day of winter in the 2018-19 season, and we are just two days away from the two greatest sporting days of the entire year: the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
For the college hoops junkie, it is an all-day smorgasbord of do-or-die games, involving big names and small fry in odd matchups all across the country. And I do mean all-day. Games start at 11 a.m. and the last one likely won’t be finished until 11:30 p.m.
And with the first round of the tournament, come brackets and bracket pools. In the extremely fine print at the bottom of a printed bracket from ncaa.com is a quaint admonishment that, “the NCAA opposes all forms of sports wagering.”
Yeah, right. In fact, more money changes hands for the first two days of the NCAA Men’s Tournament than any other event on the sports wagering calendar. And that does include the entry fees for office and on-line bracket pools far and wide.
Even if you don’t put much (or any) money on the tournament, every college hoops fan likes to fill in “their” bracket and see how far it goes.
The idea is to play out the entire tournament, from Thursday’s games to the National Championship on April 8 in Minneapolis. As the tournament progresses, losers get crossed off the bracket until your national championship team is eliminated or wins it all.
Last year, a large number of brackets were dead after the second day of the tournament, when Virginia became the first top-seeded team in history to lose to a 16-seed, when the Cavaliers bombed against Maryland-Baltimore County.
This season? Based on what I’ve seen this season, there appears to be about a group of about eight teams with all the tools to win six games in three weeks.
It doesn’t appear likely that one of the true Cinderellas will get to Minnesota, unless you consider Gonzaga a Cinderella team, which most people don’t any more.
With all of that in mind, here’s my bracket in all of its glory. I did a preliminary bracket Sunday night after the Selection Show, then another, slightly different one on Monday, and did the definitive official Stan Caldwell NCAA Tournament Bracket Tuesday night.
I thought about waiting until Wednesday night, after the First Four games are finished, to get a true sense of the tournament, and it might have made a difference in one pick that I’ll get to later, but chose to proceed now.
So, let’s go through the process and see how my bracket developed. First, the East Region. No surprise, I have Duke going through to the Final Four out of the East.
I’ve seen Duke without Zion Williamson and I’ve seen Duke with him. The Blue Devils are good without him; they’re almost – almost – unbeatable with him.
I pretty much like the chalk in the early rounds in this region. There are a lot of observers who think Mississippi State is vulnerable to Liberty in the first round, but I think the Bulldogs take care of business, then they’ll find Virginia Tech too much in the second round.
I gave long hard consideration to picking Yale over LSU as one of my 4-13 upset specials, with Tiger coach Will Wade apparently suspended for the rest of the season over a recruiting scandal, and Yale with a high-octane offense that can score with anyone.
But a game where they just roll the balls out and play a 94-foot game favors the team with more good athletes, and that would be LSU in this game.
In the South Region, I still believe in Tennessee, even after their dud of an effort Sunday against Auburn in the SEC Tournament final.
I’ve seen the Vols twice against Kentucky in the past couple of weeks, and they played two of the most perfect games a team can play. If they can sustain that level of play, UT can go a long way in this tournament.
I like Ole Miss to get past Oklahoma in the first round then bow out to top-seed Virginia. The Sooners have not impressed me when I’ve seen them play this season, and the Rebels have a team that should usher OU out on Friday.
I do have one upset special in the South bracket. I like Cal-Irvine to punch out Kansas State in the first round. I don’t think the Wildcats will have their star, senior guard Dean Wade, back from injury, and K-State is vulnerable without him.
On to the Midwest Region, and here I think it comes down to North Carolina against Kentucky in the Elite Eight. Flip a coin. At various times over the past several weeks, the Tar Heels and Wildcats have each looked like the best team in America.
I must pick one, so I’ll take Roy Williams over John Calipari.
The Midwest is where my team, the Kansas Jayhawks, are slotted, and I am not bullish on KU this year. Kansas gets Northeastern, a team that hit 13 3-pointers in their tournament final, in the first round, and KU has not fared well this year against teams with good outside shooters.
I was tempted by New Mexico State as a 12-seed over a No. 5, but reconsidered and went with Auburn to get to the Sweet Sixteen at the expense of my Jayhawks.
Finally, the West. This is where I see all sorts of bracket mayhem, and I think when the smoke clears it will be Nevada cutting down the nets in Anaheim after beating Florida State. The 29-4 Wolf Pack were a top 10 preseason pick that a lot of folks are sleeping on right now.
Gonzaga, the No. 1 seed, you ask? I am generally not sold on the Zags as a national championship team, although they got to the championship game in 2017 and have several of those players remaining.
This year, the Selection Committee did the Bulldogs no favors. Gonzaga will have to beat one better-than-average ACC team in the second round in Syracuse, then another very good ACC team in the Sweet Sixteen in the Seminoles, who are very deep and very athletic.
I do have a 12-seed winning in this bracket, as I join the masses who see Murray State rolling Marquette in the opening round. I considered waiting to see if Arizona State would beat St. John’s in the First Four, and picking the Sun Devils to beat Buffalo, but chose not to. (Ed., Changed my mind at the last minute after watching ASU win Wednesday night.)
That gives me two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 and a 7-seed that I think was undervalued by the committee in the Final Four. Who wins?
As well as Tennessee has played this season, the Vols have gone brain-dead in some key spots, including in Sunday’s 20-point whipping by Auburn, and I’m not sure even UT’s best will be enough against North Carolina.
And I can’t see Nevada, or anyone else, stopping the Duke Express. If everybody for the Blue Devils stays healthy – especially Zion – they’re the clear best team in the field.
Duke should get past Nevada and have just enough to beat the Tar Heels in a fourth, and most important, meeting between the two old rivals this season.
Stan Caldwell is a 35-year veteran sports writer in the Hattiesburg area, and most recently served as sports information director at Pearl River Community College in Mississippi.
