If we can’t play a real NCAA Tournament bracket, let’s make up one

By Stan Caldwell

stanmansportsfan.com

Here I sit, on the afternoon of Friday, March 20, the third Friday in March, when I should be in my second day of binge-watching college basketball.

In years past, the third Thursday and Friday of March have been two of my favorite sports-watching days of the calendar year, right up there – and sometimes better than – Super Bowl Sunday or even New Year’s Day, with all of its college football bowl games.

Those are the days when the NCAA plays the first round of its Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, 32 games over two days, a veritable basketball smorgasbord when March Madness really takes over and rules the roost.

But there is no March Madness this year, because the NCAA Tournament – along with all sports events around the world – have been canceled because of the coronavirus, a deadly pandemic that has swept the globe in a way not seen since the influenza outbreak of 1918.

But I’m not here today to talk about that. I’m here to play basketball. If I can’t play a real NCAA Tournament bracket, then, by golly, I’ll make up one of my own and play it.

I’m not the only one doing this. A lot of college hoops mavens have designed their own brackets and played it out. Some have even used computer models. Me? I’m just going by feel and intuition, and some data from my chosen source, CBS Sports bracket expert Jerry Palm.

I picked Palm largely by random. I wanted someone who had created a mock bracket, but hadn’t played it all the way out, the way many had.

I used Palm’s bracket based on his interpretation of the same data the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee would have used to create the real bracket, and his was the first one I came to. Simple as that.

There were a few curiosities in Palm’s bracket that I’m not sure the committee would have done.

For example, in the First Four, one of the matchups of 11-seeds has Stanford playing UCLA, two teams from the Pac-12 Conference. Not sure that would have happened in real life, but I’m going to leave it.

Also, Palm has Gonzaga as the No. 1 seed in the West Regional playing its first and second-round games in Spokane, Washington, the same city where the school is located. I’m confident that the NCAA would never do that.

So, I changed that, and flipped the sites, so that Gonzaga’s section of the bracket plays the first two rounds in Sacramento, California, with the section Palm has in Sacramento playing in Spokane. Easy peasy. Otherwise, I left it alone.

A couple of notable teams that were left out of the field were Texas Tech, last season’s national runner-up, and Mississippi State.

If fans of the Bulldogs (20-11 overall, 11-7 in SEC play) want to know why they would have been in the NIT, I’ll point them to their 25-point drubbing at Ole Miss in January. As for the Red Raiders (18-13 overall), they just didn’t have enough quality wins and their non-conference strength of schedule of 188 left them no margin for error.

So, let the games begin. Records and other pertinent data are based on all games through March 12, when play was suspended for good.

I am going to give you the tournament weekend by weekend, with the first and second rounds this week, the Sweet Sixteen next week and the Final Four the following week.

THE FIRST FOUR

The Tuesday doubleheader at Dayton, Ohio, features Midwest 16s Robert Morris (20-14) vs. North Carolina Central (18-13) followed by South Region 11-seeds Richmond (24-7) against Wichita State (23-8).

There really isn’t much to choose in either of these games. Both Richmond and Wichita had similar Net and RPI ratings. The Spiders had a little better overall strength of schedule, but the Wheatshockers had a better non-conference SOS.

I went with Wichita State, just because of their tournament history, and I picked Robert Morris by that most time-honored method of decision-making, the flip of a coin. Honest.

The Wednesday games were a little more interesting, with 16-seeds Siena (20-10) against Prairie View (19-13), and the Stanford-UCLA game.

In the opener, I like Siena, simply because the SWAC, from which Prairie View is the presumptive champion, doesn’t have a good record in the First Four. In fact, if I’d have been doing the bracket, I’d have had Jackson State winning the SWAC and getting this spot.

As for the Cardinal and the Bruins, I looked at their seasons, and it was interesting. Stanford was 20-12 after losing in the Pac-12 Tournament first round to Cal and would have been sweating on Selection Sunday. The Cardinal were 15-2 in mid-January, then seemed to fall apart.

The Bruins were 19-12 overall, but they were 12-6 in conference play and seeded second in the Pac-12 Tournament. At this time of the year, you look for trends, and the trajectory of these two teams were headed in opposite directions. UCLA was an easy pick in this one.

FIRST ROUND

MIDWEST REGION

I had two upsets in the first round of this region. In every tournament first round there is always at least one 12-seed that knocks off a No. 5, and one of the two I picked this year is East Tennessee State over Wisconsin in the Midwest at St. Louis.

On paper, the 21-10 Badgers looked pretty good. Their Net was 23 and their RPI was 26, they finished 14-6 in the Big Ten, the toughest conference in the country, and their non-conference SOS was 40.

But something about ETSU intrigued me. The Buccaneers were 30-4 after finishing 16-2 in the Southern Conference, a solid mid-major league, and their non-conference SOS was a very respectable 71. There is always that one team nobody suspects that lurks in the first-round weeds waiting for a big name, and ETSU is my pick for that team.

The other upset in the Midwest first round wasn’t that much of an upset, 11-seed Cincinnati (20-10) over No. 6 Illinois (21-10) at Greensboro, N.C. From where I sit, the Bearcats were one of the more under-seeded teams in the field, with a 13-5 record in the American Conference and SOS ratings of 25 and 26. This, to me, was a no-brainer.

I also liked ninth-seeded Florida (19-12) in a pick-em game over 8-seed Arizona State (20-11) at Omaha, Nebraska, for no other reason than it was SEC over Pac-12.

Otherwise, I liked the chalk in the first round here: No. 1 Kansas (28-3) over Robert Morris in Omaha, 4-seed Kentucky (25-6) over No. 13 Vermont (26-7) at St. Louis, No. 3 Duke (25-6) over 14-seed Little Rock (21-10) in a de facto home game at Greensboro, and Michigan (19-12) over Utah State (26-8) in a 7-10 battle and second-seeded Creighton (24-7) over No. 15 Belmont (26-7), both at St. Louis. I was tempted by Utah State, but I figured rust over rest, as the Aggies would have gone nearly two weeks between games, while the Wolverines would have been sharper.

EAST REGION

I stayed close to form in the first round this region. I had two sorta-kinda upsets, with Oklahoma (19-12) knocking off St. Mary’s (26-8) in an 8 vs. 9 battle at Cleveland, Ohio, and I liked 10-seed Indiana (20-12) over No. 7 Southern Cal (22-9), for no other reason than it’s often tough for West Coast teams to fly cross-country and play, as the Trojans would have done to play in Albany, New York.

For the rest, it was top-seed Dayton (29-2) easily over 16-seed Winthrop (24-10). The Flyers were really, really good and they would be virtually at home playing in Cleveland.

At Tampa, Florida, I really liked fifth-seeded Auburn (25-6) over 12-seed Akron (24-7) and 4-seed Louisville (24-7) over No. 13 Liberty (30-4). I think the Flames would have given the Cardinals a tough game, but when Louisville was right, they could play with anybody in the country.

The other games at Cleveland had No. 6 West Virginia (21-10) over 11-seed Rutgers, a Big Ten overachiever at 20-11 and Michigan State (22-9), the 3-seed, over Conference USA champ North Texas. I saw the 20-11 Mean Green put on a 3-point shooting clinic at Reed Green Coliseum in a blowout win over Southern Miss, and that gives them a puncher’s chance, but I think Sparty would be too much in the Big Dance.

Finally, I liked the 2-seed Villanova (24-7) big over No. 15 North Dakota State (25-8) at Albany.

WEST REGION

My other 12-5 upset comes in the West, at Spokane, with Stephen F. Austin (28-3) putting out Penn State (21-10).

This one was a lot easier than picking East Tennessee. The Lumberjacks had one of the signature upsets of the season in late November, defeating Duke 85-83 in a highlight-reel finish at Cameron Indoor, and their non-conference SOS was 146, very good for the Southland Conference.

The Nittany Lions, by contrast, played a weak non-conference schedule – their rating of 330 was the worst in the field – and they were on a three-game losing streak heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

Otherwise, I liked the chalk in this region. No. 1 Gonzaga (31-2) wouldn’t have any problem with Siena, and I like Houston (23-8) over Colorado in the 8-9 clash at Sacramento. The other game at Spokane would have Oregon (24-7), the 4-seed, over No. 13 New Mexico State (25-6). The other games at Sacramento have No. 7 Iowa (20-11) edging 10-seed Xavier (19-13) and No. 2 San Diego State (30-2) over Eastern Washington (23-8), the 15-seed.

At Albany, I have BYU (24-8) getting past UCLA and No. 3 Seton Hall (21-9) over Hofstra (26-8) in a game whose fan bases wouldn’t have had far to travel to make for a nice atmosphere. The Cougars, at No. 6, were a little underrated in my book. They were 13-3 in the West Coast Conference, with a Net rating of 9, an RPI of 15 and a non-conference SOS of 9. They probably deserved to be a 5-seed or even a 4.

SOUTH REGION

No big upsets in this region, but the ones I have would have been great matchups. I like 9-seed Arizona (21-11) in a whisker over No. 8 Marquette (18-12) at Omaha, and LSU (21-10), the 10-seed, over No. 7 Providence (19-12) at Tampa.

These are basically coin-flip games, especially Arizona, and the LSU-Providence battle might have been the best first-round game of any of them. Both the Tigers and the Friars had 12-6 records in tough conferences, and both had good overall strength of schedule, 8 for Providence and 12 for LSU. The difference, to me, was that LSU played a far more difficult non-conference schedule, No. 8 in the rankings, and that seasoning would be the difference.

Otherwise, business as usual. Top seed Baylor (26-4) would have had no trouble with Boston University (21-13) at Omaha. At Spokane, I’ll take No. 5 Ohio State (21-10) over 12-seed Yale (23-7) and Butler (22-9) over Bradley (23-11) in the 4-13 game.

At Greensboro, I can’t resist setting up a classic second-round clash at Greensboro between old rivals Virginia (23-7) and Maryland (24-7), with the sixth-seeded Cavaliers getting past Wichita State and the 3-seeded Terrapins sending the No. 14 Anteaters of Cal-Irvine (21-11) home. And in the final game at Tampa, I see No. 2 Florida State (26-5) easing into the second round over 15-seed Northern Kentucky (23-9).

And on to the second round we go.

SECOND ROUND

MIDWEST REGION

This is where the rubber really meets the road. I think Florida is game, but this Kansas team might be the best that Bill Self has put on the floor in his illustrious career at Lawrence.

The Jayhawks are the No. 1 overall seed and they earned it on the court, playing the nation’s toughest schedule, both overall and out of conference.

KU’s three losses were by two points to Duke in the season opener on a neutral court, by one point at Villanova and a 12-point home loss to Baylor. Among their victories are wins over Dayton, BYU, Stanford and a three-point win at Baylor. Florida would be a test, but the Jayhawks pass and move on to the Sweet Sixteen.

Elsewhere, I think Kentucky bursts ETSU’s bubble, I like Duke to knock out Cincinnati and I have Creighton moving on past inconsistent Michigan.

EAST REGION

Once again, the Ohio crowd comes to Cleveland to spur Dayton past Oklahoma, and I like second-seeded Villanova big over Indiana with a similarly favorable crowd at Albany, just a short drive up the highway from Philadelphia.

But I have two upsets brewing in this region, with Auburn punching out Louisville and West Virginia putting out Michigan State.

The Tigers still had some pieces left from their Final Four team from a year ago, and they finished second in the SEC. They’d have the crowd advantage at Tampa, and I like them to win a close one over the Cardinals.

It’s the same with West Virginia. The Mountaineers played one of the toughest schedules in the country, second overall and No. 4 in non-conference games. It’s hard to guess which way the crowd would go at Cleveland, with East Lansing just over the state line, but WVU isn’t that far away either and I can see the Dayton fans getting behind the Mountaineers.

WEST REGION

The first No. 1 seed goes down, as Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars knock out perennially overrated Gonzaga.

Every year, the Bulldogs come into the tournament with a sparkling record built on dominating the West Coast Conference, and every year in the tournament they run into a team with superior athleticism that can match their physicality. This year, that team is Houston, 13-5 and good for second place in the American.

The other three top seeds move on, however, although I can see SFA giving Oregon all it wants. For Seton Hall, the overwhelming fan support they get at Albany will put the Pirates over the top against BYU, and likewise at Sacramento, San Diego State will have a decided home-court edge over Iowa, not that the Aztecs need it.

SOUTH REGION

No surprises in this region, with Baylor cruising past Arizona, Butler getting past Ohio State, Maryland knocking out the defending national champs Virginia, and home-court advantage at Tampa will be too much as Florida State sends LSU home after two games.

Keep an eye out for the Seminoles, as they are loaded for bear in this tournament. The Tigers could win this one, but I just believe FSU would be too much for LSU. As for the Terps, their more up-tempo style would pose too much of a matchup problem for Virginia, which would favor a game in the 50s.

And that covers the first two round of Stan’s Mythical NCAA Tournament. Come back next week for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.

Stan Caldwell is a 35-year veteran sports writer in the Hattiesburg area, and most recently served as sports information director at Pearl River Community College in Mississippi.