By Stan Caldwell
stanmansportsfan.com
I’ve got a few first impressions of the Men’s NCAA Tournament bracket, along with my first full bracket in which I’m picking more or less based on who I’ve and what I’ve read.
This is coming on Sunday night, so after I do some study – if I have the time while I’m on a little mini-vacation this week – some of these opinions may change.
First-Round game I’m most looking forward to watching on the telly: Thursday, Texas A&M-Penn State; Friday, Memphis-FAU.
Sleeper team: Creighton. Don’t sleep on the Blue Jays. They played a tough schedule in a tough conference and their bracket is favorable.
The obligatory 5-12 upset: I’ve got two this year, Drake over Miami and VCU over St. Mary’s.
Sleeper team No. 2: Marquette: For a No. 2 seed, they’ve kind of flown under the radar a little bit, but Shaka Smart has a history of success in the tournament, and the Golden Eagles have a full head of steam after rolling to the Big East Tournament championship.
Upset I can’t quite pull the trigger on just yet: I’d love to see Sun Belt champ Louisiana beat Tennessee. (Yeah, it’s still ULL, but I concede defeat on the matter 😏), but I couldn’t quite make the pick. Cajuns can win, though, and the Vols are a shaky 4-seed, so I may change my mind.
Best potential second round matchup: All the 8/9s vs. 1s could be intriguing, but the one I’m waiting for is Kansas vs. Arkansas, assuming the Razorbacks get past Illinois, which will be no sure thing. KU has been vulnerable to teams with size this season, and while I haven’t seen the Hogs, I’ve read where they are long and athletic.
Who got screwed?: No real egregious omissions from the looks of it. I thought Rutgers did enough in the Big Ten Tournament to get a bid, but that’s no biggie. As far as under-seedings in the field, most everyone seems to think Texas A&M should have been higher than a 7-seed.
Thinnest of margins: Way back on November 27 in the Phil Knight Invitational at Portland, Oregon, Alabama outlasted North Carolina 103-101 in four overtimes.
At the time, the Tar heels at 5-2 were still No. 1 in the country, as they had been in the preseason, so there was some anticipation about a rematch in the NCAA Tournament.
But UNC hit the skids, finished the regular season 19-12, got bounced in the ACC quarterfinals and were left out of the NCAA field for the first time since 2010. Chances are pretty good that if the Tar Heels had gotten that win over Bama, they would have made the field of 68.
Injuries that could impact your bracket: Three stand out. UCLA will be without starting guard Jaylen Clark, who averages 13 points and 6 rebounds for the Bruins. He’s done for the season after suffering an Achilles heel injury in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Houston star guard Marcus Sasser is questionable with a groin injury he suffered early Sunday in the American Conference final against Memphis. If he can’t go or is limited, the Cougars could be in some trouble.
Miami forward Norchad Omier has an ankle injury and is questionable for the tournament. He averages 14 points and 10 rebounds for the Hurricanes, so his potential absence could be big for Miami.
OK, quick snap picks for the Final Four:
South, Alabama. They’ll get a test in the second round from either West Virginia or Maryland, both physical teams, but I like the way they’re playing right now, and if Arizona gets knocked out ahead of the Elite Eight, all the better for Bama.
East, Kentucky. Don’t laugh. A month and a half ago, UK was flirting with the bubble, then played their way into a 6-seed, and they have Oscar Tshiebwe, who is their x-factor. Their half of the bracket is winnable; I think they knock off Marquette, Memphis takes out Purdue in the second round and the Cats find themselves in Houston after beating the Tigers in the regional final.
Midwest, Texas. I’ve seen a lot of the Longhorns lately, and I’m impressed. They’re mentally tough after going through a mid-season coaching change, they play tremendous interior defense, and they have momentum after winning the Big 12 Tournament. It will come down to them or Houston at the Elite Eight, and I like UT for the win.
West, Kansas. What? You thought I’d pick against my Jayhawks? Well, as I said earlier, KU’s got a tough second-round matchup with either Arkansas or Illinois, but I like VCU to sweep out St. Mary’s and UConn ahead of the Sweet 16, and if KU gets past the first weekend, they’re usually looking at a pretty deep run, and they’ve got one of the best players in the country in Jalen Wilson. If he gets a little bit of help, he can carry the Jayhawks a long way.
And now, the Final Four: Alabama over Kentucky; Texas over Kansas; Bama over Texas. The Crimson Tide beat Kentucky by 26 in January at Tuscaloosa, and while this is a different Wildcat team, I can’t see UK making up that kind of margin.
Texas is a matchup nightmare for Kansas, if the Jayhawks can’t consistently hit 3-point shots. KU lives and dies by the 3-ball, and if they can adjust to the shooting environment at NRG Stadium in Houston, site of the Final Four, they can flip this pick, but right now I’m not feeling it.
Bama has arguably the best player in the country in Brandon Miller, and while you may not like how the off-the-court situation Miller put himself into in January was handled – no one does – his ball skills are undeniable, he’s playing at the top of his game, and he’s got plenty of help. Tide rolls to the NCAA title.
That’s it. Let’s check back in a couple of weeks and see how we did.
Stan Caldwell is a veteran sportswriter with nearly 40 years working in the Hattiesburg area.
